Chevuturi, A. orcid.org/0000-0003-2815-7221, Klingaman, N.P. orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303, Guo, L. orcid.org/0000-0002-6004-3884 et al. (8 more authors) (2022) Subseasonal prediction performance for South American land–atmosphere coupling in extended austral summer. Climate Resilience and Sustainability, 1 (1). e28. ISSN 2692-4587
Abstract
Land–atmosphere feedbacks, through water and energy exchanges, provide subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability of the hydrological cycle. We analyse subseasonal land–atmosphere coupling over South America (SA) during extended austral summer for the soil moisture-to-precipitation and soil moisture-to-air temperature feedback pathways. We evaluate subseasonal hindcasts from global forecasting systems from the UK Met Office, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts and the Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies (CPTEC), for the common period of 1999–2010, against two reanalyses. Biases in land–atmosphere states are established in the first week of hindcasts and increase with lead time. By Week 5, all the models only demonstrate good performance over northern, northeastern and southeastern SA for soil moisture and evapotranspiration and over tropical and subtropical SA for temperature. The hindcasts show stronger coupling at longer lead–lag between variables than reanalyses. Our results highlight possible deficiencies in feedbacks between soil moisture and precipitation in CPTEC and NCEP forecasts over the Amazon due to initial dry soil moisture biases, and in feedbacks between soil moisture and temperature for all four investigated models over southeastern SA due to erroneous representations of evapotranspiration.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2021 The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC-BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
Keywords: | land–atmosphere feedback, soil moisture, subseasonal forecasts |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number Met Office Not Known |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 26 Apr 2024 08:55 |
Last Modified: | 26 Apr 2024 08:55 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Wiley |
Identification Number: | 10.1002/cli2.28 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:211941 |