The Development of Stated Preference Techniques in Transport Planning

INTRODUCTION

This paper looks at the development of Stated Preference (SP) techniques in transport. It is a mix of history, review, and explanation of key techniques and arguments. It attempts to avoid controversy. All those mentioned have played a part in the development or understanding of the techniques available today. With respect for these efforts we need to identify promising areas for the development of improved methods for the future.

In large measure, this paper reports what was written at the different stages of development of SP methods. Extensive quotes are included. While nothing that is now seen as plainly wrong has been left unremarlted, there has not been any intention to critically assess each contribution. On some matters the jury is still out, whilst more generally it is true to say that SP design is a compromise which inevitably involves accepting some deficiencies to gain other benefits.

This paper arises out of an EPSRC fimded project into Stated Preference design, and so the review concentrates on design matters. Naturally, problems with estimation using SP data have implications for the design of SP experiments, and so some attention is given to estimation where this is thought relevant.

By compressing so much into such a small space, the paper will be heavy going for many readers. Do not despair. It is strongly recommended that no more than a single subsection be attempted at a sitting.

Thanks to those who have helped, particularly with the arduous typing, and apologies to those whose work I have left out, misrepresented or maligned or whose name I have misspelt etc. Having taken two years to get this far, the thought of a further revision is too horrific to contemplate at the moment, but just in case I would be happy to receive comments, corrections, typos, improvements to references, additional references etc. Enjoy.