Seismotectonic aspects of the Ms 7.3 1948 October 5 Aşgabat (Ashgabat) earthquake, Türkmenistan: right-lateral rupture across multiple fault segments, and continuing urban hazard

The Ms 7.3 1948 Aşgabat earthquake was one of the most devastating earthquakes of the 20th century, yet little is known about its location, style and causative fault. In this study, we bring together new seismic and geomorphic observations with previously published descriptions of surface rupture and damage distributions to determine the likely source of the earthquake. We determine the epicentre and focal mechanism of this earthquake from digitized historical seismograms and the relocation of regional seismicity to show that the earthquake most likely nucleated close to the city of Aşgabat. The earthquake ruptured a right-lateral strike-slip fault to the southeast of the city, which has a clear long-term expression in the landscape, and also likely reactivated a subparallel concealed thrust along the Gyaursdag anticline east of the city. The earthquake potentially also ruptured a right-lateral segment northwest of Aşgabat, which does not have an identifiable expression in the landscape. Using high-resolution satellite imagery and digital elevation models we investigate the geomorphology of active faulting around Aşgabat and adjacent parts of the Köpetdag (Kopeh Dagh) mountain range front, showing that there are significant strike-slip and oblique strike-slip segments adjacent to the city that apparently did not rupture in 1948, and yet show clear geomorphic expression and potential right-lateral displacement of Parthian-era (∼2000 yr) and post-Sassanian era (∼1500 yr) archaeological remains. Luminescence dating of displaced fluvial terraces west of Aşgabat yields a vertical displacement rate of 0.6 mm yr−1, though the strike-slip rate remains undetermined.