Archer, L., Lomax, N. orcid.org/0000-0001-9504-7570 and Tysinger, B. (2021) A Dynamic Microsimulation Model for Ageing and Health in England: The English Future Elderly Model. International Journal of Microsimulation, 14 (3). pp. 2-26. ISSN 1747-5864
Abstract
Population ageing has the potential to disrupt every aspect of society, placing a great deal of stress in particular on our healthcare and welfare systems. To overcome these challenges will require effective policy interventions with effects that may not be truly seen for decades. Policy makers would therefore benefit from a tool that allows them to assess the long-term impact of their decisions on population health. We have developed such a tool by adapting the well-established Future Elderly Model (FEM) developed in the US to use the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. The FEM is a Markov microsimulation model for people aged over 50 that generates input populations and transition probabilities using the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, and can then project the population forward in time assessing the prevalence and incidence of a number of chronic diseases and related economic outputs. By modifying the input populations or transition probabilities, we can use the model to investigate counterfactual scenarios and assess the long-term effects of policy interventions on elderly health. In this paper we describe the model and its workings, provide evidence to validate its outputs, and outline possible applications
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2021, Archer et al. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited. |
Keywords: | Ageing; Microsimulation; Policy |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Geography (Leeds) > Centre for Spatial Analysis & Policy (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 06 Mar 2024 14:41 |
Last Modified: | 06 Mar 2024 14:41 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | International Microsimulation Association |
Identification Number: | 10.34196/ijm.00239 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:209932 |