Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability

Abstract

Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species’ ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species’ traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species’ range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species’ ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting.

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Item Type:	Article
Authors/Creators:	Howard, Christine Marjakangas, Emma Liina Morán-Ordóñez, Alejandra Milanesi, Pietro Abuladze, Aleksandre Aghababyan, Karen Ajder, Vitalie Arkumarev, Volen Balmer, Dawn E. Bauer, Hans Günther Beale, Colin M. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2960-5666 Bino, Taulant Boyla, Kerem Ali Burfield, Ian J. Burke, Brian Caffrey, Brian Chodkiewicz, Tomasz Del Moral, Juan Carlos Mazal, Vlatka Dumbovic Fernández, Néstor Fornasari, Lorenzo Gerlach, Bettina Godinho, Carlos Herrando, Sergi Ieronymidou, Christina Johnston, Alison Jovicevic, Mihailo Kalyakin, Mikhail Keller, Verena Knaus, Peter Kotrošan, Dražen Kuzmenko, Tatiana Leitão, Domingos Lindström, Åke Maxhuni, Qenan Mihelič, Tomaž Mikuska, Tibor Molina, Blas Nagy, Károly Noble, David Øien, Ingar Jostein Paquet, Jean Yves Pladevall, Clara Portolou, Danae Radišić, Dimitrije Rajkov, Saša Rajković, Draženko Z. Raudonikis, Liutauras Sattler, Thomas Saveljić, Darko Shimmings, Paul Sjenicic, Jovica Šťastný, Karel Stoychev, Stoycho Strus, Iurii Sudfeldt, Christoph Sultanov, Elchin Szép, Tibor Teufelbauer, Norbert Uzunova, Danka van Turnhout, Chris A.M. Velevski, Metodija Vikstrøm, Thomas Vintchevski, Alexandre Voltzit, Olga Voříšek, Petr Wilk, Tomasz Zurell, Damaris Brotons, Lluís Lehikoinen, Aleksi Willis, Stephen G.
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information:	Funding Information: This work was supported in large part by funding to S.G.W. from NERC (NE/T001038/1) and from a DU Seedcorn Grant (054_19-20), which supported S.G.W. and C.H. to work on the project. A.L. and E.M. were funded by the Academy of Finland (project 323527, 329251). In addition, the research has been funded through the 2017–2018 Belmont Forum and BiodivERsA joint call for research proposals, under the BiodivScen ERA-Net COFUND programme, and with the funding organisations Academy of Finland (Helsinki: 326338) and the National Science Foundation (CLO, ICER-1927646). A.M.O. was supported by the Spanish Government through the Juan de la Cierva fellowship program—IJCI-2016-30349 and partially supported by the project GREENRISK (PID2020-119933RB-C22). L.B. was partially funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 through the projects SPEAR (PCI2022-135056-2) and CEX-2018-000828-S “Centro de Excelencia Severo Ochoa”. D.Z. acknowledges support from the German Science Foundation (DFG, grant no. ZU 361-1/1). P.M. is funded by the Research project implemented under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP), Project title “National Biodiversity Future Center -NBFC”. CUP J33C22001190001. We thank Mark Eaton and Ruud Foppen for their contributions to this work through the EBCC Atlas Steering Committee. Finally, we would like to thank the European Bird Census Council (EBCC), its partner organisations and the many thousands of ornithologists who contributed to the data collection. Funding Information: This work was supported in large part by funding to S.G.W. from NERC (NE/T001038/1) and from a DU Seedcorn Grant (054_19-20), which supported S.G.W. and C.H. to work on the project. A.L. and E.M. were funded by the Academy of Finland (project 323527, 329251). In addition, the research has been funded through the 2017–2018 Belmont Forum and BiodivERsA joint call for research proposals, under the BiodivScen ERA-Net COFUND programme, and with the funding organisations Academy of Finland (Helsinki: 326338) and the National Science Foundation (CLO, ICER-1927646). A.M.O. was supported by the Spanish Government through the Juan de la Cierva fellowship program—IJCI-2016-30349 and partially supported by the project GREENRISK (PID2020-119933RB-C22). L.B. was partially funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 through the projects SPEAR (PCI2022-135056-2) and CEX-2018-000828-S “Centro de Excelencia Severo Ochoa”. D.Z. acknowledges support from the German Science Foundation (DFG, grant no. ZU 361-1/1). P.M. is funded by the Research project implemented under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP), Project title “National Biodiversity Future Center -NBFC”. CUP J33C22001190001. We thank Mark Eaton and Ruud Foppen for their contributions to this work through the EBCC Atlas Steering Committee. Finally, we would like to thank the European Bird Census Council (EBCC), its partner organisations and the many thousands of ornithologists who contributed to the data collection. Publisher Copyright: © 2023, The Author(s).
Dates:	Published: 20 July 2023 Accepted: 23 May 2023
Institution:	The University of York
Academic Units:	The University of York > Faculty of Social Sciences (York) > Social Policy and Social Work (York) > York Environmental Sustainability Institute The University of York > Faculty of Sciences (York) > Biology (York)
Depositing User:	Pure (York)
Date Deposited:	05 Mar 2024 08:50
Last Modified:	16 Oct 2024 19:49
Published Version:	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1
Status:	Published
Refereed:	Yes
Identification Number:	10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1
Related URLs:	http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?...
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID):	oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:209915

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Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability

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