Wiethase, J.H. orcid.org/0000-0003-2008-1613, Mostert, P.S., Cooney, C.R. et al. (2 more authors) (2024) Spatio‐temporal integrated Bayesian species distribution models reveal lack of broad relationships between traits and range shifts. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 33 (5). e13819. ISSN 1466-822X
Abstract
Aim
Climate change and habitat loss or degradation are some of the greatest threats that species face today, often resulting in range shifts. Species traits have been discussed as important predictors of range shifts, with the identification of general trends being of great interest to conservation efforts. However, studies reviewing relationships between traits and range shifts have questioned the existence of such generalized trends, due to mixed results and weak correlations, as well as analytical shortcomings. The aim of this study was to test this relationship empirically, using analytical approaches that account for common sources of bias when assessing range trends.
Location
Tanzania, East Africa.
Time period
1980–1999 and 2000–2020.
Major taxa studied
57 savannah specialist birds found in Tanzania, belonging to 26 families and 11 orders.
Methods
We applied recently developed integrated spatio-temporal species distribution models in R-INLA, combining citizen science and bird Atlas data to estimate ranges of species, quantify range shifts, and test the predictive power of traditional trait groups, as well as exposure-related and sensitivity traits. We based our study on 40 years of bird observations in East African savannahs, a biome that has experienced increasing climatic and non-climatic pressures over recent decades. We correlated patterns of change with species traits using linear regression models.
Results
We find indications of relationships identified by previous research, but low average explanatory power of traits from an ecological perspective, confirming the lack of meaningful general associations. However, our analysis finds compelling species-specific results.
Main conclusions
We highlight the importance of individual assessments while demonstrating the usefulness of our analytical approach for analyses of range shifts.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2024 The Authors. Global Ecology and Biogeography published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
Keywords: | climate change; data integration models; eBird; range shifts; savannahs; species distribution models; species traits |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Science (Sheffield) > School of Biosciences (Sheffield) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 06 Mar 2024 11:28 |
Last Modified: | 08 Nov 2024 13:07 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Wiley |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1111/geb.13819 |
Related URLs: | |
Sustainable Development Goals: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:209856 |