National Multi-Modal Travel Forecasts: Aggregate Elasticities from Published Great Britain Transport Statistics.

This study attempts to form a relationship between the observed volume (or demand) of each mode and various other explanatory measures such as fare, supply and socio-economic measures. The strength of these relationships will be expressed as elasticities which capture the percentage effect of the change in the explanatory measures on the observed volume, based on previous experience. Reasonable models were obtained for bus and private car travel. The rail model had unusually high elasticities with respect to train kilometres. This was thought to be indicative of simultaneity. Attempts to remedy this situation by the applcation of two stage least squares were unsuccessul