Seidoglu, H., Farrell, G., Dixon, A. et al. (2 more authors) (2024) Post-pandemic crime trends in England and Wales. Crime Science, 13. 6. ISSN 2193-7680
Abstract
This study of recorded crime trends in England & Wales spans three and a half years, that is, two covid pandemic years from March 2020 and 18 ‘post-pandemic’ months following cessation of covid restrictions. Observed crime rates were compared to expected (based on 5-year ARIMA models) and the ambient population (using Community Mobility Reports). It finds that, In Year 1, observed rates diverged dramatically from expected, waxing and waning generally in line with the movement restrictions of three national lockdowns. In Year 2, movement restrictions loosened and observed crime rates moved towards but mostly remained far from expected. In post-pandemic Year 3, people’s movement increased and observed crime rates continued towards expected. By mid-Year 4 many rates remained below expected levels, their mean monthly differences including: theft from person (− 22%); burglary (− 20%); vehicle crime (− 29%); violence & sexual offences (− 27%); robbery (− 16%) and; public order offences (− 21%). An exceptional increase in shoplifting achieved 20% above expected rates by August 2023. Methodological limitations and further research on shoplifting and other issues are discussed. The main conclusion is that crime trends generally followed ambient population movement and that enduring lifestyle changes in the post-pandemic period, notably increased work-from-home, account for continuing below-expected rates of many crime types.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
---|---|
Authors/Creators: |
|
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © The Author(s) 2024. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data. |
Keywords: | COVID-19; Forecasting; Lifestyle theory; Routine activities; Mobility theory; Ambient population; Shoplifting; Work from home |
Dates: |
|
Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Education, Social Sciences and Law (Leeds) > School of Law (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number RCUK (Research Councils UK) ES/V00445X/1 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 13 Feb 2024 10:53 |
Last Modified: | 12 Mar 2024 15:21 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | BMC |
Identification Number: | 10.1186/s40163-024-00201-1 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:209063 |