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Oleng, M. orcid.org/0000-0003-3933-5230, Ozdemir, Z. and Pilakoutas, K. (2024) Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment framework for Uganda: a stochastic event-based modelling approach. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 22 (5). pp. 1539-1579. ISSN 1570-761X
Abstract
Uganda lies between the eastern and western arms of the East African Rift System, the largest seismically active rift above sea level. With increasing population, urbanisation and rapid construction, seismic risk in the country is escalating fast and is compounded by the high vulnerability of the building stock and inadequate disaster prevention and mitigation strategies. Hence, there is an urgent need to assess Uganda’s resilience against seismic risks. This paper presents a Monte-Carlo based probabilistic seismic hazard model for Uganda, as the first step towards the development of a seismic risk and resilience assessment framework for the country. In addition to fault segment data, earthquake catalogues are compiled for the period between 1900 and 2022 to estimate recurrence parameters for source zones in the area of interest. Area source zones incorporating focal mechanisms are used to stochastically model a national hazard framework for Uganda. A logic tree approach is applied to implement four ground motion prediction equations for both stable continental and active shallow crust geologies. Mean hazard curves, uniform hazard spectra, earthquake disaggregation and spectral pseudo-accelerations for major Ugandan cities are derived in addition to hazard maps for the country. The findings are largely consistent with previous regional studies and confirm that western Uganda is exposed to the highest level of seismicity. The model presented herein can be used to kick-start the update and continuous improvement of Uganda Seismic Design Code and the National Policy for Disaster Preparedness and Management.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © The Author(s) 2024. Open Access: This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
Keywords: | Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA); Monte-Carlo (MC); simulations; Fault-oriented model; Spatially smoothed seismicity; Logic-tree implementation; Uganda |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Engineering (Sheffield) > Department of Civil and Structural Engineering (Sheffield) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 07 Feb 2024 14:49 |
Last Modified: | 11 Nov 2024 13:21 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1007/s10518-024-01856-6 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:208921 |
Available Versions of this Item
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Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment framework for Uganda:
A stochastic modelling approach. (deposited 07 Feb 2024 14:54)
- Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment framework for Uganda: a stochastic event-based modelling approach. (deposited 07 Feb 2024 14:49) [Currently Displayed]