Rees, P. orcid.org/0000-0002-4276-9091 and Wilson, T. orcid.org/0000-0001-8812-7556 (2023) Accuracy of Local Authority Population Forecasts Produced by a New Minimal Data Model: A Case Study of England. Population Research and Policy Review, 42 (6). 91. ISSN 0167-5923
Abstract
The preparation of forecasts for small and local area populations involves many challenges. Standard cohort-component models are problematic because of small numbers, which make estimation of rates unreliable. Because of this, the Synthetic Migration Population Projection (SYMPOPP) model was designed to forecast local populations without need for detailed area-specific information. This model had been used successfully for small area forecasts in Australia. The objective of the paper is to assess its performance when applied to local areas in England. The model uses a bi-regional structure based on a movement population account. Sub-models of total population change are employed to control future change. Fertility, mortality and migration rates are borrowed from national statistics, constrained to small area indicators. The model uses an Excel workbook with VBA routines and is relatively easy and quick to use. Model inputs were calibrated for 2006–2011 and used to forecast for 2011–2021. Results were tested against the census-based 2021 mid-year populations. A new error statistic, Age Structure Error, was used to evaluate Basic and Refined model versions against official projections. The two versions of SYMPOPP posted lower errors. The simple models had fewer areas with errors of 10% or more (12.3–12.6%) compared with the official projections (14.5% of areas). Investigation revealed that these errors occurred in local authorities with high military, student, prison, or ethnic minority populations, influenced by factors not captured in a projection model for the general population.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
Keywords: | Population forecasts; Simple models; Cohort-component models; Age Structure Errors; Forecast performance |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Geography (Leeds) > Centre for Spatial Analysis & Policy (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number ESRC (Economic and Social Research Council) ES/L013878/1 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 18 Jan 2024 13:50 |
Last Modified: | 18 Jan 2024 13:50 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11113-023-09839-2 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
Identification Number: | 10.1007/s11113-023-09839-2 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:207057 |