Mao, W. orcid.org/0009-0009-8423-4077, Shepherd, S. orcid.org/0000-0002-4420-3382, Harrison, G. orcid.org/0000-0002-4324-772X et al. (1 more author) (2024) Autonomous vehicle market development in Beijing: A system dynamics approach. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 179. 103889. ISSN 0965-8564
Abstract
A system dynamics (SD) model for the autonomous vehicles (AVs) market development in Beijing is proposed. The model approaches the vehicle scale evolution with the marketization development of private AVs and shared AVs. Some potential factors such as trust, AV purchase willingness, AV using willingness and shared AV service accessibility, are analyzed. Based on the passenger vehicle situation in Beijing, optimistic scenarios from 2014 to 2050 are developed. The base scenario involves the marketization of private AVs and the operation of shared AV fleets, and based on the levels of driving automation, which are divided into six types. The causal feedback relationship and system flow diagram are illustrated. Results show that with the introduction of AVs in Beijing, the number of private vehicles is significantly decreased, which is dependent on the use of shared AVs. To compare with the private vehicle ownership in 2020, the total number of private vehicles has decreased and the number of the private vehicles is over 2.2 million vehicles in 2050. After 2030, the shared vehicle fleet will be dominated by the high-level shared AV and the number of high-level shared AVs is about 2 million. Further, to consider the impact of ride-sharing, the model compares the different attitudes for customers to share their rides and use the shared AV alternative ratio to approach this. The result shows that the extreme ratio will reduce the number of shared AVs, and the fleet size of shared vehicle is about 400,000 vehicles in 2050. For the low ratio scenario, the fleet size of shared vehicle will increase a lot to over 3,186,000 vehicles, which will lead to a large number of cars on the road and thus increase congestion. The introduction of AVs is expected to reduce the number of private vehicles; However, the uncertainty of residents' attitudes towards car sharing will affect the introduction of AVs. At present, the existing policies prefer to limit the number of vehicles by controlling car registration in Beijing. In the future, with the application of AVs, this could be adjusted by encouraging ride sharing, to achieve sustainable urban transport development in Beijing.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2023, Elsevier. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/. This is an author produced version of an article published in Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | Autonomous vehicles; System dynamics; Shared autonomous vehicles; Market share |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > Institute for Transport Studies (Leeds) > ITS: Sustainable Transport Policy (Leeds) The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > Institute for Transport Studies (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number ESRC (Economic and Social Research Council) ES/T000074/1 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 24 Nov 2023 13:28 |
Last Modified: | 21 Nov 2024 01:13 |
Published Version: | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/... |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.tra.2023.103889 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:205793 |
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