Potter, E, Fyffe, C, Orr, A et al. (13 more authors) (2023) A future of extreme precipitation and droughts in the Peruvian Andes. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 6. 96. ISSN 2397-3722
Abstract
Runoff from glacierised Andean river basins is essential for sustaining the livelihoods of millions of people. By running a high-resolution climate model over the two most glacierised regions of Peru we unravel past climatic trends in precipitation and temperature. Future changes are determined from an ensemble of statistically downscaled global climate models. Projections under the high emissions scenario suggest substantial increases in temperature of 3.6 °C and 4.1 °C in the two regions, accompanied by a 12% precipitation increase by the late 21st century. Crucially, significant increases in precipitation extremes (around 75% for total precipitation on very wet days) occur together with an intensification of meteorological droughts caused by increased evapotranspiration. Despite higher precipitation, glacier mass losses are enhanced under both the highest emission and stabilization emission scenarios. Our modelling provides a new projection of combined and contrasting risks, in a region already experiencing rapid environmental change.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © The Author(s) 2023. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC-BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number NERC (Natural Environment Research Council) NE/S013318/1 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 12 Jun 2023 11:01 |
Last Modified: | 26 Jul 2023 11:12 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Nature Research |
Identification Number: | 10.1038/s41612-023-00409-z |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:200282 |