van den Hurk, BJJM, Baldissera Pacchetti, M orcid.org/0000-0002-5867-6893, Boere, E et al. (26 more authors) (2023) Climate impact storylines for assessing socio-economic responses to remote events. Climate Risk Management, 40. 100500. ISSN 2212-0963
Abstract
Quote: “What I hear, I forget. What I see, I remember. What I do, I understand.” (Xunzi, ∼300 BCE).
Modelling complex interactions involving climatic features, socio-economic vulnerability or responses, and long impact transmissions is associated with substantial uncertainty. Physical climate storylines are proposed as an approach to explore complex impact transmission pathways and possible alternative unfoldings of event cascades under future climate conditions. These storylines are particularly useful for climate risk assessment for complex domains, including event cascades crossing multiple disciplinary or geographical borders. For an effective role in climate risks assessments, development guidelines are needed to consistently develop and interpret the storyline event analyses.
This paper elaborates on the suitability of physical climate storyline approaches involving climate event induced shocks propagating into societal impacts. It proposes a set of common elements to construct the event storylines. In addition, criteria for their application for climate risk assessment are given, referring to the need for storylines to be physically plausible, relevant for the specific context, and risk-informative.
Apart from an illustrative gallery of storyline examples found in literature, three examples of varying scope and complexity are presented in detail, all involving the potential impact on European socio-economic sectors induced by remote climate change features occurring far outside the geographical domain of the European mainland. The storyline examples illustrate the application of the proposed storyline components and evaluate the suitability of the criteria defined in this paper. It thereby contributes to a rigorous design and application of event-based climate storyline approaches.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2023 The Author(s). This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC-BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
Keywords: | Climate change, Physical climate storylines, Climate risk assessment, Risk transmission, Multi-disciplinary research, Societal climate impacts |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Sustainability Research Institute (SRI) (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 09 Jun 2023 10:39 |
Last Modified: | 09 Jun 2023 10:39 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100500 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:200145 |