The effect of temperature-dependent material properties on simple thermal models of subduction zones

To a large extent, the thermal structure of a subduction zone determines where seismicity occurs through controls on the transition from brittle to ductile deformation and the depth of dehydration reactions. Thermal models of subduction zones can help understand the distribution of seismicity by accurately modelling the thermal structure of the subduction zone. Here, we assess a common simplification in thermal models of subduction zones, i.e. constant values for the thermal parameters. We use temperature-dependent parameterisations, constrained by lab data, for the thermal conductivity, heat capacity, and density to systematically test their effect on the resulting thermal structure of the slab. To isolate this effect, we use the well-defined, thoroughly studied, and highly simplified model setup of the subduction community benchmark by van Keken et al. (2008) in a 2D finite-element code. To ensure a self-consistent and realistic initial temperature profile for the slab, we implement a 1D plate model for cooling of the oceanic lithosphere with an age of 50 Myr instead of the previously used half-space model. Our results show that using temperature-dependent thermal parameters in thermal models of subduction zones affects the thermal structure of the slab with changes on the order of tens of degrees and hence tens of kilometres. More specifically, using temperature-dependent thermal parameters results in a slightly cooler slab with e.g. the 600 ∘C isotherm reaching almost 30 km deeper. From this, we infer that these models would predict a larger estimated seismogenic zone and a larger depth at which dehydration reactions responsible for intermediate-depth seismicity occur. We therefore recommend that thermo(-mechanical) models of subduction zones take temperature-dependent thermal parameters into account, especially when inferences of seismicity are made.