Novel approach to forecasting photospheric emergence of active regions

One key aspect of understanding the solar dynamo mechanism and the evolution of solar magnetism is to properly describe the emergence of solar active regions. In this Letter, we describe the Lagrangian photospheric flows dynamics during a simulated flux emergence that produces an active region formed by pores. We analyze the lower photospheric flow organization prior, during and following the rise of an active region, uncovering the repelling and attracting photospheric structures that act as sources and sinks for magnetic element transport. Our results show that around 10 hr before the simulated emergence, considerable global changes are taking place on mesogranular scales indicated by an increase of the number of regions acting as a source to the multiple and scattered emergences of small-scale magnetic flux. At the location of active region's appearance, the converging flows become weaker and there is an arising of a diverging region 8 hr before the emergence time. Our study also indicates that the strong concentration of magnetic field affects the flow dynamics beyond the area of the actual simulated pores, leading to complex and strongly diverging flows in the neighboring regions. Our findings suggest that the Lagrangian analysis is a powerful tool to describe the changes in the photospheric flows due to magnetic flux emergence.