Not going out during the Covid-19 pandemic? A multilevel geographical analysis of UK Google Mobility Reports, February 2020–December 2021

The analysis reported in this paper uses Google Mobility Reports to understand subnational trends in population spatial immobility/mobility in the United Kingdom during 2020 and 2021. Using multilevel modelling, it analyses how spatial mobility changed through time in response to the strictness of government lockdown and the annual seasonal cycle of public holidays, and between places in terms of their population composition as measured by the shares of the highly-educationally qualified and the self-employed. The results show that there are no consistent differences between the nations of the United Kingdom; that time spent at home increased with the severity of lockdown; that the share of highly qualified was also a good predictor of staying at home; and that there were major effects from public holidays. The analysis did not explain all the variation between places and dates; it is suggested that this is because of randomisation of the data by Google and unmodelled factors such as tiered restrictions.