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Sianko, I., Ozdemir, Z. orcid.org/0000-0002-7491-8047, Hajirasouliha, I. orcid.org/0000-0003-2597-8200 et al. (1 more author) (2023) Probabilistic seismic risk assessment framework: case study Adapazari, Turkey. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 21 (7). pp. 3133-3162. ISSN 1570-761X
Abstract
While earthquakes can have a devastating impact on the economic growth and social welfare of earthquake prone regions, probabilistic seismic risk assessment can be employed to assess and mitigate such risks from future destructive events. In a previous study (Sianko et al. in Bull Earthq Eng 18:2523–2555, 2020), a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) tool based on the Monte-Carlo approach, was developed to predict the seismic hazard for high seismicity areas. In this study, a seismic risk assessment framework is developed incorporating the previously developed PSHA tool, with vulnerability functions based on various damage criteria, exposures and casualty models. Epistemic uncertainty is addressed using logic trees and distribution functions. The developed seismic risk assessment framework can estimate human and economic losses for particular return periods using an event-based stochastic procedure. The framework is applied to a case study area, the city of Adapazari in Turkey. Seismic risk assessment is carried out for different return periods to identify the most vulnerable areas of the city. The verification of the developed seismic risk framework is performed by comparing the predicted seismic losses to those observed during the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake that severely affected the city of Adapazari. The results of the study indicate that while overall predictions for extensive and complete damage states demonstrate strong correlation with the observed data, accurate risk predictions at the district level are not achievable without microzonation studies.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © The Author(s) 2023. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
Keywords: | Seismic risk assessment; Seismic loss estimation; Vulnerability curves; Exposure model; Monte-Carlo (MC) simulations; Adapazari, Turkey; Earthquake scenario |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Engineering (Sheffield) > Department of Civil and Structural Engineering (Sheffield) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number ENGINEERING AND PHYSICAL SCIENCE RESEARCH COUNCIL EP/P010016/1 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 18 Apr 2023 11:16 |
Last Modified: | 10 May 2023 08:11 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1007/s10518-023-01674-2 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:198265 |
Available Versions of this Item
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Probabilistic seismic risk assessment framework: case study Adapazari, Turkey. (deposited 05 Apr 2023 16:17)
- Probabilistic seismic risk assessment framework: case study Adapazari, Turkey. (deposited 18 Apr 2023 11:16) [Currently Displayed]