Fredriksen, H, Smith, CJ orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-4633, Modak, A et al. (1 more author) (2023) 21st Century Scenario Forcing Increases More for CMIP6 Than CMIP5 Models. Geophysical Research Letters, 50 (6). e2023GL102916. ISSN 0094-8276
Abstract
Although the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) protocol provides an experiment to estimate effective radiative forcing (ERF), it is only quantified for few models. We present new estimates of ERF for models participating in CMIP6 by applying the method developed in Fredriksen et al. (2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034145), and validate our approach with available fixed-SST forcing estimates. We estimate ERF for experiments with abrupt changes of CO2, 1% increase of CO2, historical forcings, and future scenarios, and demonstrate that CMIP6 ERF is lower than CMIP5 ERF at the end of the historical period, but grows faster than CMIP5 in the future scenarios, ending up at higher levels than CMIP5 at the end of the 21st century. The simulated radiative efficiency of CO2 has not changed much, suggesting that the larger future increase in CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5 is important for explaining the forcing difference.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2023 The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC-BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 20 Mar 2023 11:38 |
Last Modified: | 20 Mar 2023 11:38 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Wiley |
Identification Number: | 10.1029/2023gl102916 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:197499 |