Martins, Inês S. orcid.org/0000-0003-4328-7286, Navarro, Laetitia M., Pereira, Henrique M. et al. (1 more author) (2020) Alternative pathways to a sustainable future lead to contrasting biodiversity responses. Global Ecology and Conservation. e01028. ISSN 2351-9894
Abstract
Land-use change is currently the main driver of biodiversity loss. Projections of land-use change are often used to estimate potential impacts on biodiversity of future pathways of human development. However, such analyses frequently neglect that species can persist in human-modified habitats. Our aim was to estimate changes in biodiversity, considering affinities for multiple habitats, for three different land-use scenarios. Two scenarios focused on more sustainable trajectories of land-use change, based on either technological improvements (Pathway A) or societal changes (Pathway B), and the third reflected the historical or business-as-usual trends (Pathway 0). Using Portugal as a case study, we produced spatially-explicit projections of land-use change based on these pathways, and then we assessed the resulting changes in bird species richness and composition projected to occur by 2050 in each of the scenarios. By 2050, alpha and gamma diversity were projected to decrease, relative to 2010, in Pathway 0 and increase in Pathways A and B. However, different pathways favored different species groups, and presented strong regional differences. In the technological improvement pathway, loss of extensive agricultural areas led to an increase in both natural and extensive forest areas. In this pathway, forest species increase at the expense of farmland species, while in the societal change pathway the reverse occurs, as extensive agricultural areas were projected to increase. We show that while multiple positive pathways (A and B) for biodiversity can be envisioned, they will lead to differential impacts on biodiversity depending on the transformational changes in place and the regional socio-economic context. Our results suggest that considering compositional aspects of biodiversity can be critical in choosing the appropriate regional land-use policies.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | Funding Information: We thank Joyce Zwartkruis for helpful insights on earlier versions of the analysis. ISM, LMN and HMP were supported by the German Centre for integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, funded by the German Research Foundation (grant number FZT 118). ISM and HMP were also supported by the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme project PATHWAYS (grant number 603942). IMDR was supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie (grant number 703862). Funding Information: We thank Joyce Zwartkruis for helpful insights on earlier versions of the analysis. ISM, LMN and HMP were supported by the German Centre for integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, funded by the German Research Foundation (grant number FZT 118 ). ISM and HMP were also supported by the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme project PATHWAYS (grant number 603942 ). IMDR was supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie (grant number 703862 ). Publisher Copyright: © 2020 The Authors |
Keywords: | Biodiversity change,Biodiversity modeling,Bird diversity,Land-use change,Portugal,Scenarios |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of York |
Academic Units: | The University of York > Faculty of Sciences (York) > Biology (York) |
Depositing User: | Pure (York) |
Date Deposited: | 17 Mar 2023 10:50 |
Last Modified: | 16 Oct 2024 19:07 |
Published Version: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e01028 |
Status: | Published |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e01028 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:197475 |
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Description: Alternative pathways to a sustainable future lead to contrasting biodiversity responses
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