Ganti, G, Gidden, MJ, Smith, CJ orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-4633 et al. (4 more authors) (2023) Uncompensated claims to fair emission space risk putting Paris Agreement goals out of reach. Environmental Research Letters, 18 (2). 024040. ISSN 1748-9326
Abstract
Addressing questions of equitable contributions to emission reductions is important to facilitate ambitious global action on climate change within the ambit of the Paris Agreement. Several large developing regions with low historical contributions to global warming have a strong moral claim to a large proportion of the remaining carbon budget (RCB). However, this claim needs to be assessed in a context where the RCB consistent with the long-term temperature goal (LTTG) of the Paris Agreement is rapidly diminishing. Here we assess the potential tension between the moral claim to the remaining carbon space by large developing regions with low per capita emissions, and the collective obligation to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. Based on scenarios underlying the IPCC's 6th Assessment Report, we construct a suite of scenarios that combine the following elements: (a) two quantifications of a moral claim to the remaining carbon space by South Asia, and Africa, (b) a 'highest possible emission reduction' effort by developed regions (DRs), and (c) a corresponding range for other developing regions (ODR). We find that even the best effort by DRs cannot compensate for a unilateral claim to the remaining carbon space by South Asia and Africa. This would put the LTTG firmly out of reach unless ODRs cede their moral claim to emissions space and, like DRs, pursue highest possible emission reductions, which would also constitute an inequitable outcome. Furthermore, regions such as Latin America would need to provide large-scale negative emissions with potential risks and negative side effects. Our findings raise important questions of perspectives on equity in the context of the Paris Agreement including on the critical importance of climate finance. A failure to provide adequate levels of financial support to compensate large developing regions to emit less than their moral claim will put the Paris Agreement at risk.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2023 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI. |
Keywords: | Paris Agreement, equity, highest possible ambition, emission scenarios |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number NERC (Natural Environment Research Council) NE/T009381/1 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 22 Feb 2023 11:14 |
Last Modified: | 22 Feb 2023 11:14 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | IOP Publishing |
Identification Number: | 10.1088/1748-9326/acb502 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:196301 |