Walker, S.N. orcid.org/0000-0002-4105-1547, Boynton, R.J. orcid.org/0000-0003-3473-5403, Shprits, Y.Y. orcid.org/0000-0002-9625-0834 et al. (2 more authors) (2022) Forecast of the energetic electron environment of the radiation belts. Space Weather, 20 (12). e2022SW003124. ISSN 1542-7390
Abstract
Different modeling methodologies possess different strengths and weakness. For instance, data based models may provide superior accuracy but have a limited spatial coverage while physics based models may provide lower accuracy but provide greater spatial coverage. This study investigates the coupling of a data based model of the electron fluxes at geostationary orbit (GEO) with a numerical model of the radiation belt region to improve the resulting forecasts/pastcasts of electron fluxes over the whole radiation belt region. In particular, two coupling methods are investigated. The first assumes an average value for L* for GEO, namely urn:x-wiley:15427390:media:swe21428:swe21428-math-0001 = 6.2. The second uses a value of L* that varies with geomagnetic activity, quantified using the Kp index. As the terrestrial magnetic field responds to variations in geomagnetic activity, the value of L* will vary for a specific location. In this coupling method, the value of L* is calculated using the Kp driven Tsyganenko 89c magnetic field model for field line tracing. It is shown that this addition can result in changes in the initialization of the parameters at the Versatile Electron Radiation Belt model outer boundary. Model outputs are compared to Van Allen Probes MagEIS measurements of the electron fluxes in the inner magnetosphere for the March 2015 geomagnetic storm. It is found that the fixed urn:x-wiley:15427390:media:swe21428:swe21428-math-0002 coupling method produces a more realistic forecast.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2022. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY), which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
Keywords: | radiation belt forecasts; data based NARMAX modeling; verb simulations; geostationary orbit; electron flux forecasts |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Engineering (Sheffield) > Department of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering (Sheffield) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number EUROPEAN COMMISSION - HORIZON 2020 PROGRESS - 637302 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FACILITIES COUNCIL ST/R000697/1 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 09 Jan 2023 16:01 |
Last Modified: | 09 Jan 2023 16:01 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2022sw003124 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1029/2022sw003124 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:195027 |