Maffei, S, Eggington, JWB, Livermore, PW orcid.org/0000-0001-7591-6716 et al. (4 more authors) (2023) Climatological Predictions of the Auroral Zone Locations Driven by Moderate and Severe Space Weather Events. Scientific Reports, 13. 779. ISSN 2045-2322
Abstract
Auroral zones are regions where, in an average sense, aurorae due to solar activity are most likely spotted. Their shape and, similarly, the geographical locations most vulnerable to extreme space weather events (which we term ‘danger zones’) are modulated by Earth’s time-dependent internal magnetic field whose structure changes on yearly to decadal timescales. Strategies for mitigating ground-based space weather impacts over the next few decades can benefit from accurate forecasts of this evolution. Existing auroral zone forecasts use simplified assumptions of geomagnetic field variations. By harnessing the capability of modern geomagnetic field forecasts based on the dynamics of Earth’s core we estimate the evolution of the auroral zones and of the danger zones over the next 50 years. Our results predict that space-weather related risk will not change significantly in Europe, Australia and New Zealand. Mid-to-high latitude cities such as Edinburgh, Copenhagen and Dunedin will remain in high-risk regions. However, northward change of the auroral and danger zones over North America will likely cause urban centres such as Edmonton and Labrador City to be exposed by 2070 to the potential impact of severe solar activity.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © The Author(s) 2023. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst of Geophysics and Tectonics (IGT) (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number NERC (Natural Environment Research Council) NE/P016758/1 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 16 Jan 2023 13:36 |
Last Modified: | 25 Jun 2023 23:11 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Nature Research |
Identification Number: | 10.1038/s41598-022-25704-2 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:194328 |