Wilby, RL, Dawson, CW, Yu, D et al. (8 more authors) (2023) Spatial and temporal scaling of sub-daily extreme rainfall for data sparse places. Climate Dynamics, 60. pp. 3577-3596. ISSN 0930-7575
Abstract
Global efforts to upgrade water, drainage, and sanitation services are hampered by hydrometeorological data-scarcity plus uncertainty about climate change. Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) tables are used routinely to design water infrastructure so offer an entry point for adapting engineering standards. This paper begins with a novel procedure for guiding downscaling predictor variable selection for heavy rainfall simulation using media reports of pluvial flooding. We then present a three-step workflow to: (1) spatially downscale daily rainfall from grid-to-point resolutions; (2) temporally scale from daily series to sub-daily extreme rainfalls and; (3) test methods of temporal scaling of extreme rainfalls within Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations under changed climate conditions. Critically, we compare the methods of moments and of parameters for temporal scaling annual maximum series of daily rainfall into sub-daily extreme rainfalls, whilst accounting for rainfall intermittency. The methods are applied to Kampala, Uganda and Kisumu, Kenya using the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM), two RCM simulations covering East Africa (CP4 and P25), and in hybrid form (RCM-SDSM). We demonstrate that Gumbel parameters (and IDF tables) can be reliably scaled to durations of 3 h within observations and RCMs. Our hybrid RCM-SDSM scaling reduces errors in IDF estimates for the present climate when compared with direct RCM output. Credible parameter scaling relationships are also found within RCM simulations under changed climate conditions. We then discuss the practical aspects of applying such workflows to other city-regions.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © The Author(s) 2022. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
Keywords: | Regional climate downscaling; Extreme rainfall; Intensity-duration-frequency; Tropics; Flood |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number NERC (Natural Environment Research Council) NE/M02038X/1 NERC (Natural Environment Research Council) NE/M02038X/1 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 08 Dec 2022 10:16 |
Last Modified: | 26 Jul 2023 13:13 |
Published Version: | https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-0... |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Springer |
Identification Number: | 10.1007/s00382-022-06528-2 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:194174 |
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