Rani, M.S., Cameron, R. orcid.org/0000-0002-7786-0581, Schroth, O. et al. (1 more author) (2022) Updating and backdating analyses for mitigating uncertainties in land change modeling: a case study of the Ci Kapundung upper water catchment area, Java Island, Indonesia. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 36 (12). pp. 2549-2562. ISSN 1365-8816
Abstract
In developing countries, data gaps are common and lead to uncertainties in land cover change analysis. This study demonstrates how to mitigate uncertainties in modeling land change in the Ci Kapundung upper water catchment area by comparing the outcomes of two simulation phases. A conventional cellular automata (CA)–Markov model was complemented with a multilayer perceptron (MLP) to project future land cover maps in the study area. The CA–Markov–MLP model results in high uncertainties in forested sites where a data gap is apparent in the input data (land cover maps and driver variables) and parameters. The results show that the model accuracy is improved from 47.90% in the first phase to 81.36% in the second phase. Both first and second phases integrate six demographic–economic and environmental drivers in the modeling, but the second phase also incorporates an updating and backdating analysis to revise the base-maps. This study suggests that uncertainties can be mitigated by linking such base-map revision process with the updating and backdating analyses using remote sensing datasets retrieved at different times.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2022 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This is an author-produced version of a paper subsequently published in International Journal of Geographical Information Science. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | Land cover change; cellular automata; CA–Markov; multilayer perceptron; uncertainty |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Social Sciences (Sheffield) > Department of Landscape Architecture (Sheffield) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 24 Nov 2022 16:39 |
Last Modified: | 28 Jul 2023 00:13 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Informa UK Limited |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1080/13658816.2022.2103820 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:193743 |