Stuart-Smith, R.F., Roe, G.H., Li, S. orcid.org/0000-0002-2479-8665 et al. (1 more author) (2021) Increased outburst flood hazard from Lake Palcacocha due to human-induced glacier retreat. Nature Geoscience, 14 (2). pp. 85-90. ISSN 1752-0894
Abstract
A potential glacial lake outburst flood from Lake Palcacocha (Cordillera Blanca, Peru) threatens Huaraz, a city of 120,000 people. In 1941, an outburst flood destroyed one-third of the city and caused at least 1,800 fatalities. Since pre-industrial times, Lake Palcacocha has expanded due to the retreat of Palcaraju glacier. Here we used observations and numerical models to evaluate the anthropogenic contribution to the glacier’s retreat and glacial lake outburst flood hazard. We found that the magnitude of human-induced warming equals between 85 and 105% (5–95% confidence interval) of the observed 1 °C warming since 1880 in this region. We conclude that it is virtually certain (>99% probability) that the retreat of Palcaraju glacier to the present day cannot be explained by natural variability alone, and that the retreat by 1941 represented an early impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Our central estimate is that the overall retreat is entirely attributable to the observed temperature trend, and that the resulting change in the geometry of the lake and valley has substantially increased the outburst flood hazard.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2021. |
Keywords: | Attribution; Climate and Earth system modelling; Climate-change impacts; Cryospheric science; Natural hazards |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Social Sciences (Sheffield) > Department of Geography (Sheffield) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 24 Nov 2022 14:23 |
Last Modified: | 24 Nov 2022 14:23 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1038/s41561-021-00686-4 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:193713 |