Watson-Parris, D and Smith, CJ orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-4633 (2022) Large uncertainty in future warming due to aerosol forcing. Nature Climate Change, 12 (12). pp. 1111-1113. ISSN 1758-678X
Abstract
Despite a concerted research effort and extensive observational record, uncertainty in climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing, the two largest contributions to future warming uncertainty, remains large. Here we highlight the stark disparity that different aerosol forcing can imply for future warming projections: scenarios compatible with the Paris Agreement can either easily meet the specified warming limits or risk missing them completely using plausible samples from the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report assessed uncertainty ranges.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2022. This is an author produced version of an article, published in Nature Climate Change. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number NERC (Natural Environment Research Council) NE/T009381/1 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 22 Nov 2022 14:27 |
Last Modified: | 14 May 2023 00:13 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Nature Research |
Identification Number: | 10.1038/s41558-022-01516-0 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:193435 |