Dye, Barnaby (2021) Unpacking Authoritarian Governance in Electricity Policy:Understanding Progress, Inconsistency and Stagnation in Tanzania. Energy Research and Social Science. 102209. ISSN 2214-6296
Abstract
In Africa, the 21st century has seen increased policy focus on the electricity sector, with targets for providing reliable, affordable power and achieving universal electricity access. But how to understand the policymaking affecting these goals? Recent academic and policy literature has tended to focus on factors like ‘political will’ and on the positive impacts of democratic and liberal-market institutional reform. However, given the predominance of authoritarianism in Africa, we also need to unpack countries ruled by dominant political elites. This article, using insights from the political settlements framework, addresses this by using the case study of Tanzania. Whilst under consistent de-facto 1-party rule, it experienced two markedly different periods of electricity policymaking in electricity generation, first under President Kikwete (2005–2015) and second President Magufuli (2015–2021). Meanwhile consistent, substantive increases were achieved in electricity access. Using insights from the ‘political settlements framework, the article explains these contrasts through shifts in the nature of political power. The article demonstrates that centralised, fragmented regimes contain weaknesses in their ability to implement policy and pursue long-term development, whilst centralised dominant regimes have a weakness from supressing critique. Overall, this reinforces the importance of analysing the manifestation of political power within the ruling elite, and the way this shapes key political pressures and policymaking horizons.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | Funding Information: Initially both dams appeared to have wider government backing. This is particularly true for the Stiegler’s Gorge project, long-considered a flagship by the ruling CCM and associated with Tanzania’s founder Nyerere. The Prime Minister, Mizengo Pinda, organised a cross-governmental implementation group in 2011 to bring the project to fruition [19] . However, cross government consensus, particularly from the Ministry of Finance, was never reached, meaning that no Power Purchase Agreement or sovereign guarantee between the private developers and government were signed. A change in minister in 2012 cemented the stalling of both dam projects. The MEM Minister William Ngeleja (2007–2012) had appeared supportive of dams and was due to fund more detailed preparatory studies for Stiegler’s Gorge. In contrast, the new minister in 2012 (Sospeter Muhongo) echoed another view held by parts of the ruling CCM that Tanzania should diversify its power generation from climate-vulnerable hydropower and rather invest in the nation’s natural gas [19] . This U-turn also stalled other hydropower projects: As Table 1 shows, the Ruhudji Dam was nearing construction with the support of World Bank guarantees and the Malagarasi and Kakono projects had funding from the US’ ‘Power Africa’ scheme and African Development Bank respectively. The change also stalled the Singida Wind farm which had been under development by private companies with donor support for a near decade by 2012. Thus, these cases demonstrate that presidential approval, external funding and apparent support from MEM did not signal long-term, cross-government commitment. Funding Information: This article was supported by the UK's Economic and Social Science Research Council (ESRC) under a Grant [Grant No. ES/J500112/1].through 3+ Doctoral Scholarship. I thank Isack Asfao for his vital help assisting this research project's fieldwork. I also thank my supervisor Professor Ricardo Soares de Oliveira for his support and guidance. I am indebted to Dr Laura Brinker for her detailed feedback during the article's drafting and to Dr Susann Stritzke for her crucial suggestions which greatly improved the final version. The reviewers were useful and improved the paper's structure and content, including with empirical pointers. Funding Information: This article was supported by the UK’s Economic and Social Science Research Council ( ESRC ) under a Grant [Grant No. ES/J500112/1 ].through 3+ Doctoral Scholarship. I thank Isack Asfao for his vital help assisting this research project’s fieldwork. I also thank my supervisor Professor Ricardo Soares de Oliveira for his support and guidance. I am indebted to Dr Laura Brinker for her detailed feedback during the article’s drafting and to Dr Susann Stritzke for her crucial suggestions which greatly improved the final version. The reviewers were useful and improved the paper’s structure and content, including with empirical pointers. Publisher Copyright: © 2021 Elsevier Ltd |
Keywords: | Africa,Electricity policy,Illiberal democracies,Political economy,Political settlements,Power generation |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of York |
Academic Units: | The University of York > Faculty of Social Sciences (York) > Politics (York) |
Depositing User: | Pure (York) |
Date Deposited: | 14 Oct 2022 08:20 |
Last Modified: | 06 Feb 2025 00:11 |
Published Version: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2021.102209 |
Status: | Published |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.erss.2021.102209 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:192093 |
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