Choulis, I, Mehrl, M orcid.org/0000-0002-5825-9256 and Ifantis, K (2022) Arms Racing, Military Build-Ups and Dispute Intensity: Evidence from the Greek-Turkish Rivalry, 1985-2020. Defence and Peace Economics, 33 (7). pp. 779-804. ISSN 1024-2694
Abstract
Arms races are linked in the public conscience to potential violence. Following gas discoveries in eastern Mediterranean, Greece and Turkey nearly came to blows in August 2020 and both states have enacted military expansion plans, further risking escalation. We present a novel approach to study the effect of military build-ups on dispute intensity, using monthly data on Turkish incursions into Greek-claimed airspace. Because airspace claims feature strongly in the dispute, these contestations represent an appropriate measure of the intensity with which Turkey pursues the conflict. Theoretically, we suggest that bilateral factors drive this intensity. We argue that increased Greek military capabilities deter incursions whereas increased Turkish military capabilities fuel them. Results from time-series models support the second expectation. Consequently, the study provides a novel methodological approach to studying interstate conflict intensity and shines new light on escalation dynamics in the Greek-Turkish dispute.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) |
Keywords: | Territorial Dispute; Interstate Rivalry; Greece; Turkey; Military Expenditures |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Education, Social Sciences and Law (Leeds) > School of Politics & International Studies (POLIS) (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 20 Oct 2022 11:32 |
Last Modified: | 25 Jun 2023 23:08 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Taylor and Francis Group |
Identification Number: | 10.1080/10242694.2021.1933312 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:191992 |
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Licence: CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0