Horizon scanning: early warning signals of future trends in undeclared work

This report documents how policy makers in EU Member States and enforcement authorities can undertake ‘horizon scanning’ to identify trends in undeclared work. On the one hand, an early warning system is developed for policy-makers in EU Member States. This identifies the macro-level changes that are (1) threats and risks to the growth of each type of undeclared work, and (2) strengths and opportunities for reducing each type of undeclared work. On the other hand, the types of assessment of trends in undeclared work that Member State enforcement authorities can undertake are identified, followed by a review of the early interventions that enforcement authorities have taken in response to specific negative signals, to facilitate mutual learning across Member States.