McKenna, CM orcid.org/0000-0002-9677-4582 and Maycock, AC orcid.org/0000-0002-6614-1127 (2022) The Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation for Projections of Winter Mean Precipitation in Europe. Geophysical Research Letters, 49 (19). e2022GL099083. ISSN 0094-8276
Abstract
Climate models generally project an increase in the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index under a future high-emissions scenario, alongside an increase in winter precipitation in northern Europe and a decrease in southern Europe. The extent to which future forced NAO trends are important for European winter precipitation trends and their uncertainty remains unclear. We show using the Multimodel Large Ensemble Archive that the NAO plays a small role in northern European mean winter precipitation projections for 2080–2099. Conversely, half of the model uncertainty in southern European mean winter precipitation projections is potentially reducible through improved understanding of the NAO projections. Extreme positive NAO winters increase in frequency in most models as a consequence of mean NAO changes. These extremes also have more severe future precipitation impacts, largely because of mean precipitation changes. This has implications for future resilience to extreme positive NAO winters, which frequently have severe societal impacts.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2022. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. |
Keywords: | North Atlantic Oscillation; precipitation; climate change; climate models; large ensembles; extreme winters |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number EU - European Union 820829 Leverhulme Trust PLP-2018-278 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 26 Oct 2022 13:19 |
Last Modified: | 26 Oct 2022 13:19 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Wiley |
Identification Number: | 10.1029/2022GL099083 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:191552 |