A Probabilistic Model of Container Port Demand in Java Concerning the Port Hinterland Connectivity

The port demand could be modelled from the port choice of the ports’ actors. From the actors’ perspectives, factors influencing port choice do not solely depend on the port performance itself. As a port is an interchange location of land and sea transport, the port selection is closely associated with the inland mode choice. This study applies a multinomial logit (MNL) model to predict the probability of a joint port and inland mode choice in Java, Indonesia. Six factors classified into port performance and port hinterland connectivity are applied to estimate the probability of port demand. The model also allows us to estimates the port hinterland boundaries as a corollary of port choice made by the actors. Further from the simulation on several transport strategies, introducing Patimban port as a new container port in Java greatly affects the adjacent port demand. Reducing rail transport time and improving port performance also leads to substantial port and mode shifting for container transport in Java.