Puka, K., Buckley, C. orcid.org/0000-0002-8430-0347, Mulia, N. et al. (5 more authors) (2023) Behavioral stability of alcohol consumption and socio‐demographic correlates of change among a nationally representative cohort of US adults. Addiction, 118 (1). pp. 61-70. ISSN 0965-2140
Abstract
Aims:
To estimate the probability of transitioning between different categories of alcohol use (drinking states) among a nationally representative cohort of United States (US) adults and to identify the effects of socio-demographic characteristics on those transitions.
Design, setting and participants:
Secondary analysis of data from the National Epidemiologic Survey of Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC), a prospective cohort study conducted in 2001–02 and 2004–05; a US nation-wide, population-based study. Participants included 34 165 adults (mean age = 45.1 years, standard deviation = 17.3; 52% women).
Measurements:
Alcohol use was self-reported and categorized based on the grams consumed per day: (1) non-drinker (no drinks in past 12 months), (2) category I (women = ≤ 20; men = ≤ 40), (3) category II (women = 21–40; men = 41–60) and (4) category III (women = ≥ 41; men = ≥ 61). Multi-state Markov models estimated the probability of transitioning between drinking states, conditioned on age, sex, race/ethnicity and educational attainment. Analyses were repeated with alcohol use categorized based on the frequency of heavy episodic drinking.
Findings:
The highest transition probabilities were observed for staying in the same state; after 1 year, the probability of remaining in the same state was 90.1% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 89.7%, 90.5%] for non-drinkers, 90.2% (95% CI = 89.9%, 90.5%) for category I, 31.8% (95% CI = 29.7, 33.9%) category II and 52.2% (95% CI = 46.0, 58.5%) for category III. Women, older adults, and non-Hispanic Other adults were less likely to transition between drinking states, including transitions to lower use. Adults with lower educational attainment were more likely to transition between drinking states; however, they were also less likely to transition out of the ‘weekly HED’ category. Black adults were more likely to transition into or stay in higher use categories, whereas Hispanic/Latinx adults were largely similar to White adults.
Conclusions:
In this study of alcohol transition probabilities, some demographic subgroups appeared more likely to transition into or persist in higher alcohol consumption states.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2022 The Authors. Addiction published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society for the Study of Addiction. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made. |
Keywords: | Age; agent-based model; Markov model; race and ethnicity; sex; simulation model; socio-economic status; trajectory; transition probability |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Engineering (Sheffield) > Department of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering (Sheffield) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 12 Sep 2022 18:37 |
Last Modified: | 12 Jul 2024 15:53 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Wiley |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1111/add.16024 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:190647 |