Gray, L.A. orcid.org/0000-0001-6365-7710, Breeze, P.R. orcid.org/0000-0002-4189-8676 and Williams, E.A. (2022) BMI trajectories, morbidity, and mortality in England : a two-step approach to estimating consequences of changes in BMI. Obesity, 30 (9). pp. 1898-1907. ISSN 1930-7381
Abstract
Objective
BMI is known to have an association with morbidities and mortality. Many studies have argued that identifying health risks using single BMI measures has limitations, particularly in older adults, and that changes in BMI can help to identify risks. This study identifies distinct BMI trajectories and their association with the risks of a range of morbidities and mortality.
Methods
The English Longitudinal Study of Aging provides data on BMI, mortality, and morbidities between 1998 and 2015, sampled from adults over 50 years of age. This study uses a growth-mixture model and discrete-time survival analysis, combined using a two-step approach, which is novel in this setting, to the authors' knowledge.
Results
This study identified four trajectories: “stable overweight,” “elevated BMI,” “increasing BMI,” and “decreasing BMI.” No differences in mortality, cancer, or stroke risk were found between these trajectories. BMI trajectories were significantly associated with the risks of diabetes, asthma, arthritis, and heart problems.
Conclusions
These results emphasize the importance of looking at change in BMI alongside most recent BMI; BMI trajectories should be considered where possible when assessing health risks. The results suggest that established BMI thresholds should not be used in isolation to identify health risks, particularly in older adults.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2022 The Authors. Obesity published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Obesity Society (TOS). This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health (Sheffield) > School of Health and Related Research (Sheffield) > ScHARR - Sheffield Centre for Health and Related Research |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number Medical Research Council MR/R01664X/1/MR/S009868/1 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 08 Aug 2022 13:15 |
Last Modified: | 24 Feb 2023 11:15 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Wiley |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1002/oby.23510 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:189788 |