Jones, P.M., Minton, J. and Bell, A. orcid.org/0000-0002-8268-5853 (2023) Methods for disentangling period and cohort changes in mortality risk over the twentieth century: comparing graphical and modelling approaches. Quality and Quantity, 57 (4). pp. 3219-3239. ISSN 0033-5177
Abstract
This paper explores changes in age-specific mortality risk across periods and cohorts during the twentieth century in the developed world. We use and compare two approaches—one graphical (Lexis plots) and one statistical (an adapted Hierarchical age-period-cohort model)—that control out overall trends in mortality, to focus on discrete changes associated with specific events. Our analyses point to a number of key global and local events in the Twentieth Century associated with period and/or cohort effects, including the World Wars and the influenza pandemic of 1918–19. We focus particularly on the UK but look at other countries where results are particularly noteworthy, either substantively or methodologically. We also find a decline in mortality in many western countries, specifically in the 1948 birth cohort, which may be associated with the development of post-war social welfare policies, the economic investment in Europe by the United States, the accessibility of antibiotics such as penicillin, and, in the UK, the founding of the NHS. We finish by considering the advantages and disadvantages of using the two methods with different sorts of data and research questions.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © The Author(s) 2022. Open Access: This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
Keywords: | Age-period-cohort; Lexis surface; mortality; social epidemiology; welfare state |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Social Sciences (Sheffield) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number BRITISH ACADEMY (THE) SK150011 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 22 Jul 2022 10:34 |
Last Modified: | 27 Jun 2023 10:32 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Springer Verlag |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1007/s11135-022-01498-3 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:189293 |