Chapman, S, Birch, CE orcid.org/0000-0001-9384-2810, Marsham, JH et al. (7 more authors) (2022) Past and projected climate change impacts on heat-related child mortality in Africa. Environmental Research Letters, 17 (7). 074028. ISSN 1748-9326
Abstract
Children (<5 years) are highly vulnerable during hot weather due to their reduced ability to thermoregulate. There has been limited quantification of the burden of climate change on health in sub-Saharan Africa, in part due to a lack of evidence on the impacts of weather extremes on mortality and morbidity. Using a linear threshold model of the relationship between daily temperature and child mortality, we estimated the impact of climate change on annual heat-related child deaths for the current (1995–2020) and future time periods (2020–2050). By 2009, heat-related child mortality was double what it would have been without climate change; this outweighed reductions in heat mortality from improvements associated with development. We estimated future burdens of child mortality for three emission scenarios (SSP119, SSP245 and SSP585), and a single scenario of population growth. Under the high emission scenario (SSP585), including changes to population and mortality rates, heat-related child mortality is projected to double by 2049 compared to 2005-2014. If 2050 temperature increases were kept within the Paris target of 1.5ºC (SSP119 scenario), approximately 4,000 – 6,000 child deaths per year could be avoided in Africa. The estimates of future heat-related mortality include the assumption of the significant population growth projected for Africa, and declines in child mortality consistent with Global Burden of Disease estimates of health improvement. Our findings support the need for urgent mitigation and adaptation measures that are focussed on the health of children.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2022 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI. |
Keywords: | climate change, health impacts, heat stress, child mortality, Africa |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number NERC (Natural Environment Research Council) NE/T01363X/1 BBSRC (Biotechnology & Biological Sciences Research Council) BB/P027784/1 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 27 Jun 2022 14:09 |
Last Modified: | 25 Jun 2023 23:01 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | IOP Publishing |
Identification Number: | 10.1088/1748-9326/ac7ac5 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:188202 |
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