Commodity price shocks and macroeconomic dynamics

We analyse the transmission mechanism of commodity price shocks in emerging economies. Using a panel vector autoregression, we find that the shock leads to a real exchange rate appreciation, increases in output, inflation the nominal interest rate and the trade balance, and a fall in the unemployment rate. The transmission mechanism can be understood using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a small commodity-exporting open economy with nominal as well as search and matching frictions. We find that the conduct of monetary policy is key to both the variables’ dynamics as well as to the magnitude of Dutch disease effects.