Coincident evolution of glaciers and ice-marginal proglacial lakes across the Southern Alps, New Zealand: Past, present and future

Global glacier mass loss is causing expansion of proglacial landscapes and producing meltwater that can become impounded as lakes within natural topographic depressions or ‘overdeepenings’. It is important to understand the evolution of these proglacial landscapes for water resources, natural hazards and ecosystem services. In this study we (i) overview contemporary loss of glacier ice across the Southern Alps of New Zealand, (ii) analyse ice-marginal lake development since the 1980s, (iii) utilise modelled glacier ice thickness to suggest the position and size of future lakes, and (iv) employ a large-scale glacier evolution model to suggest the timing of future lake formation and future lake expansion rate. In recent decades, hundreds of Southern Alps glaciers have been lost and those remaining have fragmented both by separation of tributaries and by detachment of ablation zones. Glaciers with ice-contact margins in proglacial lakes (n > 0.1 km2 = 20 in 2020) have experienced the greatest terminus retreat and typically twice as negative mass balance compared to similar-sized land-terminating glaciers. Our analysis indicates a positive relationship between mean glacier mass balance and rate of lake growth (R2 = 0.34) and also with length of an ice-contact lake boundary (R2 = 0.44). We project sustained and relatively homogenous glacier volume loss for east-draining basins but in contrast a heterogeneous pattern of volume loss for west-draining basins. Our model results show that ice-marginal lakes will increase in combined size by ~150% towards 2050 and then decrease to 2100 as glaciers disconnect from them. Overall, our findings should inform (i) glacier evolution models into which ice-marginal lake effects need incorporating, (ii) studies of rapid landscape evolution and especially of meltwater and sediment delivery, and (iii) considerations of future meltwater supply and water quality.