Fewster, RE orcid.org/0000-0001-6883-7024, Morris, PJ orcid.org/0000-0002-1145-1478, Ivanovic, RF orcid.org/0000-0002-7805-6018 et al. (3 more authors) (2022) Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia. Nature Climate Change, 12 (4). pp. 373-379. ISSN 1758-678X
Abstract
Human-induced climate warming by 2100 is expected to thaw large expanses of northern permafrost peatlands. However, the spatio-temporal dynamics of permafrost peatland thaw remain uncertain due to complex permafrost–climate interactions, the insulating properties of peat soils and variation in model projections of future climate. Here we show that permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia will soon surpass a climatic tipping point under scenarios of moderate-to-high warming (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). The total peatland area affected under these scenarios contains 37.0–39.5 Gt carbon (equivalent to twice the amount of carbon stored in European forests). Our bioclimatic models indicate that all of Fennoscandia will become climatically unsuitable for peatland permafrost by 2040. Strong action to reduce emissions (SSP1-2.6) by the 2090s could retain suitable climates for permafrost peatlands storing 13.9 Gt carbon in northernmost Western Siberia, indicating that socio-economic policies will determine the rate and extent of permafrost peatland thaw.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | This item is protected by copyright. This version of the article has been accepted for publication, after peer review, but is not the Version of Record and does not reflect post-acceptance improvements, or any corrections. The Version of Record is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01296-7. Use of this Accepted Version is subject to the publisher’s Accepted Manuscript terms of use https://www.springernature.com/gp/open-research/policies/acceptedmanuscript-terms |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Geography (Leeds) > River Basin Processes & Management (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number NERC (Natural Environment Research Council) NE/T009381/1 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 21 Feb 2022 14:43 |
Last Modified: | 14 Sep 2022 00:18 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Nature Research |
Identification Number: | 10.1038/s41558-022-01296-7 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:183795 |