Gilardi, A, Jorge, M, Riccardo, B et al. (1 more author) (2022) Multivariate hierarchical analysis of car crashes data considering a spatial network lattice. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, 185 (3). pp. 1150-1177. ISSN 0964-1998
Abstract
Road traffic casualties represent a hidden global epidemic, demanding evidence-based interventions. This paper demonstrates a network lattice approach for identifying road segments of particular concern, based on a case study of a major city (Leeds, UK), in which 5862 crashes of different severities were recorded over an 8-year period (2011–2018). We consider a family of Bayesian hierarchical models that include spatially structured and unstructured random effects to capture the dependencies between the severity levels. Results highlight roads that are more prone to collisions, relative to estimated traffic volumes, in the north-west and south of city centre. We analyse the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP), proposing a novel procedure to investigate the presence of MAUP on a network lattice. We conclude that our methods enable a reliable estimation of road safety levels to help identify ‘hotspots’ on the road network and to inform effective local interventions.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2022 The Authors. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Royal Statistical Society. This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
Keywords: | Bayesian hierarchical models, car crashes data, MAUP, multivariate modelling, network lattice, spatial networks |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > Institute for Transport Studies (Leeds) > ITS: Sustainable Transport Policy (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number Department of Transport No External Reference Department of Transport No External Reference Department of Transport No External Reference Department of Transport RG98867 ESRC (Economic and Social Research Council) Not Known |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 24 Jan 2022 14:46 |
Last Modified: | 25 Jun 2023 22:53 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Wiley |
Identification Number: | 10.1111/rssa.12823 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:182796 |