Oster, Howard S., Crouch, Simon orcid.org/0000-0002-3026-2859, Smith, Alexandra orcid.org/0000-0002-1111-966X et al. (26 more authors) (2021) A predictive algorithm using clinical and laboratory parameters may assist in ruling out and in diagnosing MDS. Blood Advances. pp. 3066-3075. ISSN 2473-9537
Abstract
We present a noninvasive Web-based app to help exclude or diagnose myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS), a bone marrow (BM) disorder with cytopenias and leukemic risk, diagnosed by BM examination. A sample of 502 MDS patients from the European MDS (EUMDS) registry (n \gt; 2600) was combined with 502 controls (all BM proven). Gradient-boosted models (GBMs) were used to predict/exclude MDS using demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity were used to evaluate the models, and performance was validated using 100 times fivefold cross-validation. Model stability was assessed by repeating its fit using different randomly chosen groups of 502 EUMDS cases. AUC was 0.96 (95\ 0.95-0.97). MDS is predicted/excluded accurately in 86\range, 0-1) of less than 0.68 (GBM \lt; 0.68) resulted in a negative predictive value of 0.94, that is, MDS was excluded. GBM ≥ 0.82 provided a positive predictive value of 0.88, that is, MDS. The diagnosis of the remaining patients (0.68 ≤ GBM \lt; 0.82) is indeterminate. The discriminating variables: age, sex, hemoglobin, white blood cells, platelets, mean corpuscular volume, neutrophils, monocytes, glucose, and creatinine. A Web-based app was developed; physicians could use it to exclude or predict MDS noninvasively in most patients without a BM examination. Future work will add peripheral blood cytogenetics/genetics, EUMDS-based prospective validation, and prognostication.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2021 by The American Society of Hematology. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher’s self-archiving policy. Further copying may not be permitted; contact the publisher for details |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of York |
Academic Units: | The University of York > Faculty of Sciences (York) > Health Sciences (York) |
Depositing User: | Pure (York) |
Date Deposited: | 13 Jan 2022 14:20 |
Last Modified: | 15 Dec 2024 00:09 |
Published Version: | https://doi.org/10.1182/bloodadvances.2020004055 |
Status: | Published |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1182/bloodadvances.2020004055 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:182516 |
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Description: A predictive algorithm using clinical and laboratory parameters may assist in ruling out and in diagnosing MDS