Dong, Y, Armour, KC, Proistosescu, C et al. (6 more authors) (2021) Biased Estimates of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response Derived From Historical CMIP6 Simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, 48 (24). e2021GL095778. ISSN 0094-8276
Abstract
This study assesses the effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) and transient climate response (TCR) derived from global energy budget constraints within historical simulations of eight CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs). These calculations are enabled by use of the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) simulations, which permit accurate quantification of the radiative forcing. Long-term historical energy budget constraints generally underestimate EffCS from CO2 quadrupling and TCR from CO2 ramping, owing to changes in radiative feedbacks and changes in ocean heat uptake efficiency. Atmospheric GCMs forced by observed warming patterns produce lower values of EffCS that are more in line with those inferred from observed historical energy budget changes. The differences in the EffCS estimates from historical energy budget constraints of models and observations are traced to discrepancies between modeled and observed historical surface warming patterns.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2021. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. This is the version of record of the following article: Dong, Y., Armour, K. C., Proistosescu, C., Andrews, T., Battisti, D. S., Forster, P. M., et al. (2021). Biased estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response derived from historical CMIP6 simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2021GL095778, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095778. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions. |
Keywords: | Climate sensitivity; energy budget constraints; pattern effect; radiative feedbacks; transient climate response |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number NERC (Natural Environment Research Council) NE/T009381/1 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 06 Jan 2022 13:44 |
Last Modified: | 09 Jun 2022 00:38 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Wiley |
Identification Number: | 10.1029/2021gl095778 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:181893 |