Mandrik, O. orcid.org/0000-0003-3755-3031, Thomas, C., Whyte, S. et al. (1 more author) (2022) Calibrating natural history of cancer models in the presence in the presence of data incompatibility; problems and solutions. PharmacoEconomics, 40 (4). pp. 359-366. ISSN 1170-7690
Abstract
The calibration of cancer natural history models is often challenged by a lack of representative calibration targets, forcing modellers to rely on potentially incompatible datasets. Using a microsimulation colorectal cancer model as an example, the purposes of this paper are to (1) highlight the reasons for uncertainty in calibration targets, (2) illustrate practical and generalisable approaches for dealing with incompatibility in calibration targets, and (3) discuss the importance of future research in the area of incorporating uncertainty in calibration. The low quality of data and differences in populations, outcome definitions, and healthcare systems may result in incompatibility between the model and the data. Acknowledging reasons for data incompatibility allows assessment of the risk of incompatibility before calibrating the model. Only a few approaches are available to address data incompatibility, for instance addressing biases in calibration targets and their adjustment, relaxing the goodness-of-fit metric, and validation of the calibration targets to the data not used in the calibration. However, these approaches lack explicit comparison and validation, and so more research is needed to describe the nature and causes of indirect uncertainty (i.e. uncertainty that cannot be expressed in absolute quantitative forms) and identify methods for managing this uncertainty in healthcare modelling.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2022 The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG. This is an author-produced version of a paper subsequently published in PharmacoEconomics. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | models development; microsimulation cancer model; models calibration; data compatibility |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health (Sheffield) > School of Health and Related Research (Sheffield) > ScHARR - Sheffield Centre for Health and Related Research |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number BOWEL CANCER UK nan Public Health England (PHE) National Screening Committee |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 09 Dec 2021 17:22 |
Last Modified: | 07 Jan 2023 01:13 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Springer (part of Springer Nature) |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1007/s40273-021-01125-3 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:181077 |