GCRF African SWIFT and ForPAc SHEAR White Paper on the Potential of Operational Weather Prediction to Save Lives and Improve Livelihoods and Economies in Sub-Saharan Africa

The ‘silent revolution’ of numerical weather prediction (NWP) has led to significant social benefits and billions of dollars in economic benefits to mid-latitude countries, however the level of benefit in sub-Saharan Africa has been very limited, despite the potential to save lives, improve livelihoods, protect property and infrastructure and boost economies. Ongoing climate change in Africa, and the associated projected intensification of weather impacts in coming decades, makes the realisation of effective and more reliable weather forecasts and climate services even more urgent. It is widely recognised that to achieve this potential, investment is required in strengthening decision makers’ understanding of weather predictions and confidence in interpreting and appropriately applying forecasts, alongside transparent communication of the levels of skill and probability or certainty in forecast products. However, on all time scales of prediction, it is generally unrecognised that many forecasts that produce user-relevant metrics have such low skill that they are only marginally valuable to stakeholders, creating significant practical and ethical barriers to increasing uptake and generating benefits. Here, we present substantial evidence that even a modest investment in science for weather information and forecast techniques, to provide new technology and tools for Africa, can significantly increase the skill of user-relevant forecast products on all time scales. This will be a necessary enabler for building trust in and uptake of decision-relevant forecasts with the potential to deliver significant social and economic benefits. We present here an argument that incremental improvements in the skill of weather forecasting across all timescales in the African tropics, alongside strengthening communication and understanding of these forecasts, is fundamental to saving lives and enhancing livelihoods. Investing in the capacity and capability of National Meteorological Services and research institutions is essential to ensure lifesaving and life-enhancing services continue to be developed with and designed to serve the populations of sub-Saharan countries.