Hadjichristidis, C orcid.org/0000-0002-9441-6650, Geipel, J and Gopalakrishna Pillai, K (2022) Diversity Effects in Subjective Probability Judgment. Thinking and Reasoning, 28 (2). pp. 290-319. ISSN 1354-6783
Abstract
Previous research has shown that the judged probability of an event depends on whether its description mentions examples (“What is the probability that a randomly chosen Italian businessman will travel during the next month to Warsaw, Budapest, Prague or some other European city?”) or does not mention examples (“What is the probability that a randomly chosen Italian businessman will travel during the next month to a European city?”). Here, we examined descriptions that mention examples and manipulated whether these are relatively similar (e.g., Warsaw, Budapest, Prague) or diverse (e.g., Warsaw, Marseilles, Helsinki). Four experiments (N = 1112) revealed a diversity effect: Overall, descriptions with diverse examples received higher probability judgments than descriptions with similar examples. We discuss several possible mechanisms for this effect, such as that descriptions with diverse examples prompt fuller representations of the target category or that the effect is driven by a representativeness or proximity heuristic.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
---|---|
Authors/Creators: |
|
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2021 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This is an author produced version of an article published in Thinking and Reasoning. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | coverage; diversity; Probability judgment; proximity heuristic; representativeness heuristic; support theory |
Dates: |
|
Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Business (Leeds) > Management Division (LUBS) (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 04 Nov 2021 15:34 |
Last Modified: | 09 Nov 2022 01:28 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Routledge |
Identification Number: | 10.1080/13546783.2021.2000494 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:179969 |