Nadarajah, R orcid.org/0000-0001-9895-9356, Wu, J orcid.org/0000-0001-6093-599X, Frangi, AF orcid.org/0000-0002-2675-528X et al. (3 more authors) (2021) Predicting patient-level new-onset atrial fibrillation from population-based nationwide electronic health records: protocol of FIND-AF for developing a precision medicine prediction model using artificial intelligence. BMJ Open, 11 (11). e052887. ISSN 2044-6055
Abstract
Introduction: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major cardiovascular health problem: it is common, chronic and incurs substantial healthcare expenditure because of stroke. Oral anticoagulation reduces the risk of thromboembolic stroke in those at higher risk; but for a number of patients, stroke is the first manifestation of undetected AF. There is a rationale for the early diagnosis of AF, before the first complication occurs, but population-based screening is not recommended. Previous prediction models have been limited by their data sources and methodologies. An accurate model that uses existing routinely collected data is needed to inform clinicians of patient-level risk of AF, inform national screening policy and highlight predictors that may be amenable to primary prevention.
Methods and analysis: We will investigate the application of a range of deep learning techniques, including an adapted convolutional neural network, recurrent neural network and Transformer, on routinely collected primary care data to create a personalised model predicting the risk of new-onset AF over a range of time periods. The Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD)-GOLD dataset will be used for derivation, and the CPRD-AURUM dataset will be used for external geographical validation. Both comprise a sizeable representative population and are linked at patient-level to secondary care databases. The performance of the deep learning models will be compared against classic machine learning and traditional statistical predictive modelling methods. We will only use risk factors accessible in primary care and endow the model with the ability to update risk prediction as it is presented with new data, to make the model more useful in clinical practice.
Ethics and dissemination: Permissions for CPRD-GOLD and CPRD-AURUM datasets were obtained from CPRD (ref no: 19_076). The CPRD ethical approval committee approved the study. The results will be submitted as a research paper for publication to a peer-reviewed journal and presented at peer-reviewed conferences.
Trial registration details: A systematic review to incorporate within the overall project was registered on PROSPERO (registration number CRD42021245093). The study was registered on ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04657900).
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ. This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Unported (CC BY 4.0) license, which permits others to copy, redistribute, remix, transform and build upon this work for any purpose, provided the original work is properly cited, a link to the licence is given, and indication of whether changes were made. See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Engineering & Physical Sciences (Leeds) > School of Computing (Leeds) The University of Leeds > Faculty of Medicine and Health (Leeds) > School of Dentistry (Leeds) > Applied Health and Clinical Translation (Leeds) The University of Leeds > Faculty of Medicine and Health (Leeds) > School of Medicine (Leeds) > Leeds Institute of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Medicine (LICAMM) > Clinical & Population Science Dept (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number British Heart Foundation FS/20/12/34789 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 25 Oct 2021 13:45 |
Last Modified: | 17 Nov 2021 11:18 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | BMJ Publishing Group |
Identification Number: | 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-052887 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:179424 |