Lawal, K.A., Olaniyan, E., Ishiyaku, I. et al. (18 more authors) (2021) Progress and challenges of demand-led co-produced sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) climate forecasts in Nigeria. Frontiers in Climate, 3. 712502. ISSN 2624-9553
Abstract
This paper identifies fundamental issues which prevent the effective uptake of climate information services in Nigeria. We propose solutions which involve the extension of short-range (1 to 5 days) forecasts beyond that of medium-range (7 to 15 days) timescales through the operational use of current forecast data as well as improve collaboration and communication with forecast users. Using newly available data to provide seamless operational forecasts from short-term to sub-seasonal timescales, we examine evidence to determine if effective demand-led sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) climate forecasts can be co-produced. This evidence involves: itemization of forecast products delivered to stakeholders, with their development methodology; enumeration of inferences of forecast products and their influences on decisions taken by stakeholders; user-focused discussions of improvements on co-produced products; and the methods of evaluating the performance of the forecast products.
We find that extending the production pipeline of short-range forecast timescales beyond the medium-range, such that the medium-range forecast timescales can be fed into existing tools for applying short-range forecasts, assisted in mitigating the risks of sub-seasonal climate variability on socio-economic activities in Nigeria. We also find that enhancing of collaboration and communication channels between the producers and the forecast product users helps to: enhance the development of user-tailored impact-based forecasts; increases users' trusts in the forecasts; and, seamlessly improves forecast evaluations. In general, these measures lead to more smooth delivery and increase in uptake of climate information services in Nigeria.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2021 Lawal, Olaniyan, Ishiyaku, Hirons, Thompson, Talib, Boult, Ogungbenro, Gbode, Ajayi, Okogbue, Adefisan, Indasi, Youds, Nkiaka, Stone, Nzekwu, Folorunso, Oyedepo, New and Woolnough. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. |
Keywords: | climate; co-production; forecast; Nigeria; S2S |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Social Sciences (Sheffield) > Department of Geography (Sheffield) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 06 Oct 2021 10:25 |
Last Modified: | 06 Oct 2021 10:25 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Frontiers Media SA |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.3389/fclim.2021.712502 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:178796 |