Opazo Breton, M. orcid.org/0000-0002-1226-7541, Gillespie, D. orcid.org/0000-0003-3450-5747, Pryce, R. orcid.org/0000-0002-4853-0719 et al. (5 more authors) (2022) Understanding long‐term trends in smoking in England, 1972‐2019 : an age‐period‐cohort approach. Addiction, 117 (5). pp. 1392-1403. ISSN 0965-2140
Abstract
Background and aims
Smoking prevalence has been falling in England for over 50 years but remains a prevalent and major public health problem. This study used an Age-Period-Cohort (APC) approach to measure lifecycle, historical and generational patterns of individual smoking behaviour.
Design
APC analysis of repeated cross-sectional smoking prevalence data obtained from three nationally representative surveys.
Setting
England (1972 – 2019).
Participants
Individuals aged 18 to 90 years old.
Measurements
We studied relative odds of current smoking in relation to age in single years from 18 to 90, 24 groups of 2-year survey periods (1972-1973 to 2018-2019), and 20 groups of 5-year birth cohorts (1907-1911 to 1997-2001). Age and period rates were studied for two groups of birth cohorts: those aged 18 to 25 years and those aged over 25 years.
Findings
Relative to age 18, the odds of current smoking increased with age until around age 25 (odds ratio (OR): 1.48; 95% confidence interval (CI):1.41 to 1.56) and then decreased progressively to age 90 (OR: 0.06; 95% CI: 0.04 to 0.08). They also decreased almost linearly with period relative to 1972-1973 (for 2018-2019 OR: 0.30; 95% CI: 0.26 to 0.34) and with birth cohort relative to 1902-1906, with the largest decreased observed for birth cohort 1992-1996 (OR: 0.44; 95% CI: 0.35 to 0.46) and 1997-2001 (OR: 0.35; 95% CI: 0.74 to 0.88). Smoking declined in the 18-25 age group by an average of 7% over successive 2-year periods, and by an average of 5% in those aged over 25.
Conclusions
Smoking in England appears to have declined over recent decades mainly as a result of reduced smoking uptake before age 25, and to a lesser extent to smoking cessation after age 25.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2021 The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
Keywords: | Tobacco; age-period-cohort model; long-term trends; smoking prevalence |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health (Sheffield) > School of Health and Related Research (Sheffield) > ScHARR - Sheffield Centre for Health and Related Research |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number Medical Research Council MR/T032472/1 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 04 Oct 2021 13:55 |
Last Modified: | 07 Jul 2022 16:48 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Wiley |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1111/add.15696 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:178791 |