Wilson, AM, Weir, MH, King, M-F orcid.org/0000-0001-7010-476X et al. (1 more author) (2021) Comparing approaches for modelling indirect contact transmission of infectious diseases. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 18 (182). ISSN 1742-5689
Abstract
Mathematical models describing indirect contact transmission are an important component of infectious disease mitigation and risk assessment. A model that tracks microorganisms between compartments by coupled ordinary differential equations or a Markov chain is benchmarked against a mechanistic interpretation of the physical transfer of microorganisms from surfaces to fingers and subsequently to a susceptible person's facial mucosal membranes. The primary objective was to compare these models in their estimates of doses and changes in microorganism concentrations on hands and fomites over time. The abilities of the models to capture the impact of episodic events, such as hand hygiene, and of contact patterns were also explored. For both models, greater doses were estimated for the asymmetrical scenarios in which a more contaminated fomite was touched more often. Differing representations of hand hygiene in the Markov model did not notably impact estimated doses but affected pathogen concentration dynamics on hands. When using the Markov model, losses due to hand hygiene should be handled as separate events as opposed to time-averaging expected losses. The discrete event model demonstrated the effect of hand-to-mouth contact timing on the dose. Understanding how model design influences estimated doses is important for advancing models as reliable risk assessment tools.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2021 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved. This is an author produced version of an article, accepted for publication in Journal of the Royal Society Interface. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | indirect contact; infectious disease modelling; virus; exposure |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Engineering & Physical Sciences (Leeds) > School of Civil Engineering (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number Royal Society IES\R1\201282 EPSRC (Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council) EP/V032658/1 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 16 Sep 2021 10:30 |
Last Modified: | 24 Sep 2021 15:16 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | The Royal Society |
Identification Number: | 10.1098/rsif.2021.0281 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:178200 |