Morrone, D., Kroep, S., Ricci, F. et al. (6 more authors) (2020) Mortality prediction of the CHA2DS2-VASc score, the HAS-BLED score, and their combination in anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation. Journal of Clinical Medicine, 9 (12). 3987.
Abstract
Background and Objectives: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased mortality, predictors of which are poorly characterized. We investigated the predictive power of the commonly used CHA2DS2-VASc score (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥ 75 years [doubled], diabetes, stroke/transient ischemic attack/thromboembolism [doubled], vascular disease [prior myocardial infarction, peripheral artery disease, or aortic plaque], age 65–75 years, sex category [female]), the HAS-BLED score (hypertension, abnormal renal/liver function, stroke, bleeding history or predisposition, labile international normalized ratio [INR], elderly [age ≥ 65 years], drugs/alcohol concomitantly), and their combination for mortality in AF patients. Methods: The PREvention oF thromboembolic events—European Registry in Atrial Fibrillation (PREFER in AF) was a prospective registry including AF patients across seven European countries. We used logistic regression to analyze the relationship between the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores and outcomes, including mortality, at one year. We evaluated the performance of logistic regression models by discrimination measures (C-index and DeLong test) and calibration measures (Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness-of-fit and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), with bootstrap techniques for internal validation. Results: In 5209 AF patients with complete information on both scores, average one-year mortality was 3.1%. We found strong gradients between stroke/systemic embolic events (SSE), major bleeding and—specifically—mortality for both CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores, with a similar C-statistic for event prediction. The predictive power of the models with both scores combined, removing overlapping components, was significantly enhanced (p < 0.01) compared to models including either CHA2DS2-VASc or HAS-BLED alone: for mortality, C-statistic: 0.740, compared to 0.707 for CHA2DS2-VASc or 0.646 for HAS-BLED alone. IDI analyses supported the significant improvement for the combined score model compared to separate score models for all outcomes. Conclusions: Both the CHA2DS2-VASc and the HAS-BLED scores predict mortality similarly in patients with AF, and a combination of their components increases prediction significantly. Such combination may be useful for investigational and—possibly—also clinical purposes.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2020 The Authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
Keywords: | CHA2DS2-VASc score; HAS-BLED score; atrial fibrillation; morbidity; mortality; risk scores |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health (Sheffield) > School of Health and Related Research (Sheffield) > ScHARR - Sheffield Centre for Health and Related Research |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 02 Sep 2021 06:50 |
Last Modified: | 03 Sep 2021 01:22 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | MDPI AG |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.3390/jcm9123987 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:177596 |