Bravo, C, Bozkurt, D, Ross, AN orcid.org/0000-0002-8631-3512 et al. (1 more author) (2021) Projected increases in surface melt and ice loss for the Northern and Southern Patagonian Icefields. Scientific Reports, 11 (1). 16847. ISSN 2045-2322
Abstract
The Northern Patagonian Icefield (NPI) and the Southern Patagonian Icefield (SPI) have increased their ice mass loss in recent decades. In view of the impacts of glacier shrinkage in Patagonia, an assessment of the potential future surface mass balance (SMB) of the icefields is critical. We seek to provide this assessment by modelling the SMB between 1976 and 2050 for both icefields, using regional climate model data (RegCM4.6) and a range of emission scenarios. For the NPI, reductions between 1.5 m w.e. (RCP2.6) and 1.9 m w.e. (RCP8.5) were estimated in the mean SMB during the period 2005–2050 compared to the historical period (1976–2005). For the SPI, the estimated reductions were between 1.1 m w.e. (RCP2.6) and 1.5 m w.e. (RCP8.5). Recently frontal ablation estimates suggest that mean SMB in the SPI is positively biased by 1.5 m w.e., probably due to accumulation overestimation. If it is assumed that frontal ablation rates of the recent past will continue, ice loss and sea-level rise contribution will increase. The trend towards lower SMB is mostly explained by an increase in surface melt. Positive ice loss feedbacks linked to increasing in meltwater availability are expected for calving glaciers.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © The Author(s) 2021. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Geography (Leeds) > River Basin Processes & Management (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 20 Aug 2021 09:37 |
Last Modified: | 26 Jul 2022 14:59 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Nature Research |
Identification Number: | 10.1038/s41598-021-95725-w |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:177282 |